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5 Key Takeaways from ‘The New Cold War’s Hybrid Threats’ Webinar

The new Cold War is defined by the convergence of cyber, geopolitical, and physical threats, requiring unified strategies to navigate its complexities.

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December 12, 2024
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Geopolitical, cyber, and physical threats are converging in unprecedented ways, reshaping how organizations must think about security. This “hybrid” environment demands a unified approach to threat intelligence that bridges silos and enhances resilience. To address this critical challenge, Flashpoint hosted a webinar featuring Andrew Borene, Executive Director of Global Security, and Ian Gray, VP of Cyber Threat Intelligence Operations.

Here are the top five takeaways from the session, offering in-depth insights and strategies to address hybrid threats effectively. For those looking for a deeper dive, the full webinar is available on-demand.

1. The Convergence of Cyber, Physical, and Geopolitical Threats

During the webinar, Borene and Gray emphasized the complex interplay between cyber, physical, and geopolitical threats. These dimensions are no longer distinct, as state-sponsored actors increasingly blur the lines between cybercrime and traditional warfare to achieve their objectives.

In the new Cold War, the lines between cybercrime and geopolitical aggression are increasingly blurred. State-sponsored actors often employ tactics traditionally associated with criminal enterprises to achieve national objectives, creating a complex threat landscape. “Geopolitical, cyber, and physical threats are converging, demanding a unified approach to threat intelligence,” explained Gray. “As these threats evolve, organizations must move beyond siloed strategies and embrace an integrated approach to threat intelligence.”

“One of the key things that comes to mind when I think about these types of threats is the NotPetya attacks,” Borene explained. “Those were geopolitical motives masked as cybercrime—essentially making bricks out of computers. It’s a stark example of how these threats blur the lines between state and criminal objectives.”

For example, nation-states such as Russia and China use cybercrime as a tool to disrupt economies and destabilize societies, targeting critical infrastructure and businesses alike. Understanding this convergence is essential for organizations aiming to safeguard their assets in a rapidly changing environment.

2. The Role of Proxy Networks in Modern Conflict

Adversarial states are increasingly leveraging proxy networks to extend their influence while maintaining plausible deniability. These proxies operate across regions, including the Middle East, Africa, and even cyberspace, targeting critical sectors and organizations.

Borene noted: “Hybrid threats are murky… and increasingly targeting global critical infrastructure.” He emphasized how these proxy networks—such as Iran’s use of groups like Hezbollah and Hamas—carry out disruptive activities that serve broader geopolitical agendas.

This approach isn’t limited to traditional battlefields. For instance, cyber proxies have targeted institutions as diverse as Albanian government systems and multinational corporations, demonstrating the far-reaching impact of these hybrid campaigns.

3. The Evolution of Hybrid Warfare Strategies

Hybrid warfare is a hallmark of the new Cold War, integrating unconventional methods like cyberattacks, disinformation, and AI-driven manipulation. Borene and Gray discussed how doctrines like Russia’s Gerasimov Doctrine and China’s unrestricted warfare are shaping these strategies.

Hybrid warfare is characterized by its adaptability and use of unconventional methods, blending cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and physical aggression. These tactics are supported by advancements in AI and cognitive warfare tools, which enable adversaries to manipulate information and undermine trust.

“We’re seeing an increasing democratization of AI tools being used to enhance hybrid tactics,” Borene noted. “For example, state-sponsored actors and cybercriminals alike are leveraging generative AI to create deepfakes and spread disinformation with unprecedented efficiency.”

This evolution is encapsulated by doctrines such as Russia’s Gerasimov Doctrine and China’s unrestricted warfare, which prioritize societal and economic disruption over conventional military engagements. Organizations must stay vigilant against these multidimensional threats, which often exploit vulnerabilities across digital and physical domains.

4. The Importance of Public-Private Partnerships

Tackling hybrid threats requires collaboration across governments, private sectors, and academia. In free societies, industry often serves as the first line of defense, necessitating strong partnerships to enhance resilience and preparedness.

“In free societies, voluntary collaboration is critical because industry often serves as first responders to hybrid threats,” Borene and Gray emphasized.

A notable example of this collaborative effort is NATO’s 75th-anniversary curriculum, which aims to educate both defense and civilian sectors about the evolving nature of hybrid threats. These partnerships enable knowledge sharing and create unified strategies that address vulnerabilities across sectors.

5. Actionable Steps for a Unified Threat Intelligence Strategy

As hybrid threats grow more sophisticated, organizations need a comprehensive threat intelligence strategy that integrates open-source intelligence (OSINT) and aligns with business objectives. Communicating the return on security investment (ROSI) to non-security stakeholders is a critical part of this effort.

“Situational awareness isn’t just cybersecurity—it’s about preparing for ripple effects on a global scale,” Borene stated.

By adopting frameworks that bridge traditional silos and investing in tools like OSINT, businesses can anticipate potential threats and mitigate risks proactively. For example, monitoring cybercriminal forums for stolen credentials can provide early warnings of potential breaches, allowing organizations to act swiftly.

Building Resilience in a Hybrid Threat Era

The new Cold War’s hybrid threats represent a paradigm shift in how organizations must approach security. From understanding the convergence of cyber and geopolitical threats to leveraging public-private partnerships and advanced threat intelligence, the key to resilience lies in unified, proactive strategies.

For a deeper exploration of these insights, watch the full webinar on demand and discover how your organization can navigate the complexities of this evolving threat landscape.

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