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Escalation in the Middle East: Tracking the Israel–Iran Conflict Across Military and Cyber Domains
This post explores the convergence of physical warfare and cyber operations in the escalating confrontation between Israel and Iran.
Table Of Contents
Tensions between Iran and Israel have sharply intensified following Israel’s launch of “Operation Rising Lion” on June 13, 2025—a large-scale military campaign targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, military bases, command centers, and strategic sites across various Iranian provinces. Within 24 hours, Israel claimed to have eliminated senior Iranian military and nuclear personnel, while inflicting significant damage on Iranian nuclear infrastructure and anti-air defense systems.
In direct response, Iran launched “Operation True Promise 3,” fully transforming the long-standing shadow war between the two nations into a full-blown conflict. The world has watched with bated breath as Iran launches waves of ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv, while the IAF (Israeli Air Force) carries out additional airstrikes deep within Iranian territory.
“There’s no clear calculus for what happens next—‘If Israel does X, Iran will do Y.’ Geopolitical risk in the Middle East is perpetually in a gray zone between war and peace. What’s most likely now is further escalation, both on the ground and in the darkest corners of the web, before any calm.”
Andrew Borene, Flashpoint Executive Director of Global Security
On June 22, the United States entered the conflict—bombing three Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. On June 23, Iran announced Operation “Basharat al-Fath” against US bases in the Middle East and launched multiple ballistic missiles towards US military installations in Qatar and Iraq. As this crisis intensifies, understanding the geopolitical implications and broader consequences becomes increasingly essential.
Flashpoint held a community call on June 24, providing the latest developments unfolding in the Iran-Israel conflict. In this call, Flashpoint discussed current military actions, cyberwarfare dynamics, and the broader implications for regional and global security. The on-demand recording is available here.
Timeline of the Israel-Iran Conflict
Flashpoint analysts are closely monitoring the situation across physical, geopolitical, and cyber domains to assess ongoing risks and potential or emerging threats. The following timeline outlines the latest developments in the Israel-Iran conflict since the launch of Operation Rising Lion on June 13, 2025.
The Escalating Cyber Front
“This marks the opening of yet another rapidly expanding flashpoint within the global context of a new hybrid Cold War, one that will be fought both on the ground and in the darkest corners of the web.”
Andrew Borene, Flashpoint Executive Director of Global Security
In parallel with the ongoing military operations, Flashpoint has observed a sharp escalation in cyber activity. Since the onset of the conflict, cyberattacks targeting Israel have surged by 700%—spanning from destructive cyber operations to disinformation campaigns. As Iran’s supply of ballistic missiles dwindles, Flashpoint assesses that cyber operations will become Iran’s primary asymmetric tool in the continuing conflict.
State-Sponsored Threat Actor Groups and Hacktivists
The following state-sponsored Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) groups have been observed in the Israel-Iran conflict:
- APT34 (AKA OilRig)
- APT39 (AKA Remix Kitten / Chafer)
- APT404
- Handala Hack for Iran
- Al-Qassam Cyber Brigades
These groups are notorious for cyber-espionage, particularly for their destructive cyber operations and psychological-warfare capabilities. Flashpoint has observed that these groups heavily favor wiper malware—which focuses on maximum destruction of data and systems. Leveraging them, these groups have reportedly disrupted Israeli systems serving both military and civilian applications.
At the same time time, a wide array of hacktivist groups have declared support for Iran:
- Mysterious Team Bangladesh
- Arabian Ghost
- OpIsrael
- Killnet
- CyberJihad Movement
- DieNet
- LulzSec Black
- Golden Falcon
In contrast, several hacktivist groups have either announced their support for Israel or have denounced Iran:
- Predatory Sparrow
- Anonymous OpIran
- Syrian Electronic Army
- Edalate Ali
- GhostSec
There have reportedly been multiple cyberattacks targeting Iranian banks, causing widespread disruptions and claims of data deletion. On June 23, Iranian hackers reportedly infiltrated accounts of journalists and public figures in Israel using a complex phishing attack. Iranian sources claim a “successful cyber attack” on aluminum production infrastructure in “occupied territories”. Flashpoint continues to monitor these actors for coordinated campaigns, disinformation efforts, and potential spillover into allied or adjacent geopolitical regions.
Strategic Chokepoint: The Risk of a Strait of Hormuz Closure
As the Israel-Iran conflict escalates, Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz introduces yet another high-stakes variable with global implications.
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most strategically important maritime chokepoints in the world. In 2024 and early 2025, this narrow passage facilitated over 25% of global seaborne oil trade and nearly 20% of total global oil and petroleum product consumption. Any disruption could send shockwaves through global energy markets, further destabilize the region, and trigger sharp economic consequences far beyond the Gulf.
Closing the strait would not come without cost for Iran. Doing so could severely strain its relationship with China—one of its most important energy customers—while also alienating neighboring Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait. Instead of strengthening Iran’s regional posture, a blockade could deepen its isolation, provoke a multinational backlash, and jeopardize its own oil export economy.
“Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz would be a dangerous gambit for Tehran. Not only would it risk turning the broader Gulf region, including major Arab oil producers, against Iran, but it could also sever Iran’s critical oil exports to China. As a result, Iran may receive pressure from both its Arab neighbors and Beijing to avoid any interference in the strait.”
Andrew Borene, Flashpoint Executive Director of Global Security
Flashpoint assesses that while Iran may continue to threaten closure as a form of deterrence or leverage, any actual move to block maritime traffic would be a dangerous escalation likely to invite military and diplomatic intervention from both regional powers and global stakeholders. The situation remains fluid, and further monitoring of naval activity and regional energy dynamics will be critical in the coming days.
What to Expect from the Israel-Iran Conflict
This latest conflict has been marked by widespread military strikes, sophisticated cyberattacks, and intensifying rhetoric and political tensions. The situation remains highly volatile, with potential for further regional destabilization, rising casualties on both sides, and broader international involvement.
Flashpoint will continue to monitor the ongoing conflict. For any new updates, bookmark this page to stay informed of upcoming developments. Customers can view the community call’s recording, summary, and additional resources through Flashpoint’s Customer Help Center.