The New Cold War is Here: Preparing Your Business for The Convergence of Geopolitical, Physical and Cyber Threats

The global threat landscape is undergoing a profound transformation, widely recognized as the “New Cold War.” This modern conflict, no longer confined to traditional military standoffs, is now being waged across digital networks, with nation-state actors such as Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea leading the charge. These state-sponsored campaigns blur the lines between cybercrime and geopolitical strategy, targeting governments, private enterprises, critical infrastructure, and global supply chains.

For organizations, this means an expanding attack surface with threats ranging from ransomware and espionage to influence operations designed to erode trust and destabilize industries. The cost of inaction can be severe, leading to financial losses, reputational damage, and even disruptions to national economies. As geopolitical tensions rise, businesses must rethink their security strategies, focusing on resilience and defending against an array of hybrid threats that span both the digital and physical realms.

The Dawn of the New Cold War

This New Cold War is playing out in real-time through cyber operations that combine espionage, sabotage, and organized cybercrime. For instance, Russia’s Star Blizzard group, which has ties to the FSB, recently launched a sophisticated spear-phishing campaign targeting Western think tanks, government officials, and defense contractors. The operation underscores how state actors are weaponizing cyberspace to destabilize and influence Western powers. Similarly, China’s digital influence campaigns, utilizing social media platforms, AI, and advanced malware, aim to shape global narratives while maintaining plausible deniability. These efforts aren’t limited to disrupting specific industries; they represent broader strategies to shift geopolitical power. 

Even ransomware, once considered the domain of financially motivated cybercriminals, has become a key tool in state-sponsored aggression. Iran and North Korea have increasingly used ransomware not only to generate revenue but also to disrupt critical sectors like energy and finance, further blurring the line between cybercrime and geopolitical conflict. These examples illustrate how geopolitical tensions are unfolding in cyberspace, with far-reaching implications for businesses and governments alike.

Key Characteristics of the New Cold War

This evolving conflict is characterized by several key factors that businesses must be aware of to safeguard their operations.

Hybrid Warfare and Plausible Deniability

Today’s state-sponsored actors blend cyber operations, espionage, and physical threats, often maintaining plausible deniability. These tactics—frequently employed by Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea—are designed to destabilize without provoking direct retaliation, making attribution difficult by mimicking cybercriminal behavior.

In 2017, the NotPetya attack, disguised as ransomware, caused billions in damages globally, while its true target was Ukraine’s infrastructure. Initially appearing criminal, it was later traced back to Russian state-sponsored actors. This attack perfectly exemplifies how nation-states blur the lines between cybercrime and geopolitics to undermine their adversaries while maintaining ambiguity.

Blurring the Lines Between Cybercrime and State Activity

A key feature of the New Cold War is the overlap between traditional cybercrime and state-sponsored operations. Many nation-states maintain ties with criminal hacking groups or use tactics that mirror those of cybercriminals, making it difficult to distinguish between financially motivated attacks and those with geopolitical aims. This means that a ransomware attack might not just be a profit-driven scheme—it could be part of a broader campaign to destabilize industries or gather intelligence.

The Lazarus Group, linked to North Korea, is a prime example. Known for both state-sponsored cyber espionage and financial cybercrime, the group was responsible for the WannaCry ransomware attack in 2017, which disrupted businesses worldwide. While it appeared financially motivated, the attack was ultimately traced back to North Korea, underscoring how nation-states often use cybercriminal tactics to achieve broader geopolitical objectives, such as financing their regime while undermining global stability.

Geopolitical Hotspots Fueling Cyber Activity

The New Cold War is also defined by geopolitical flashpoints that are driving an increase in cyber operations. Conflicts in Ukraine, tensions in the South China Sea, and unrest in the Middle East are not isolated to their regions; they have global repercussions in cyberspace. These events often trigger waves of cyberattacks, targeting critical infrastructure, government agencies, and private sector organizations. Understanding the connection between these geopolitical events and cyber threats is critical for businesses operating in or connected to these regions.

In 2024, a series of pager and walkie talkie explosions in Lebanon targeted Hezbollah operatives. The devices, allegedly compromised through supply chain sabotage, were remotely detonated, showcasing the blend of physical and cyber tactics in geopolitical conflict. This incident highlights how cyber operations increasingly intersect with physical attacks in high-stakes regions. The explosions were an extremely high visibility example of supply chain sabotage, but they underscore vulnerabilities in global chains including often overlooked legacy technologies. This incident has heightened awareness of “n-th party security,” where every point in the supply chain, from hardware to human support, presents potential risks for exploitation by malicious actors whether state-backed or criminal.

Cold War Survival Guide: Preparing for the Future of Conflict

The New Cold War has brought about a fundamental shift in the global threat landscape. Cyber, geopolitical, and physical security challenges are converging, and organizations must adapt to this new reality. Traditional cybersecurity measures are no longer sufficient. To stay ahead of increasingly complex, state-sponsored threats, businesses need to adopt a multifaceted defense strategy that integrates intelligence from all domains—cyber, physical, and geopolitical.

Leveraging Threat Intelligence and AI

Defending against hybrid threats requires actionable and timely intelligence. Nation-state actors are constantly evolving their tactics, tools, and procedures (TTPs), making it crucial for organizations to have access to high-quality threat intelligence. AI and open-source intelligence (OSINT) further enhance these capabilities, allowing for real-time anomaly detection and a deeper understanding of adversary behavior. These tools enable organizations to identify risks early and respond before significant damage occurs.

Building Resilience

Resilience is key to surviving in the New Cold War. It’s more than just having an incident response plan; it’s about ensuring that your entire security posture can withstand a wide range of threats. This involves integrating cyber and physical security measures, hardening critical systems, and creating cross-functional teams that can address risks from multiple angles. Adaptable security frameworks, designed to evolve alongside emerging threats, will be crucial to maintaining business continuity in this volatile environment.

Fostering Public-Private Partnerships

In the face of state-sponsored threats, collaboration between the public and private sectors is critical. Public-private partnerships provide access to additional resources, advanced intelligence, and a more coordinated response to hybrid threats. By working together, businesses and government agencies can strengthen their defenses, share intelligence, and respond more quickly and effectively to emerging challenges.

The New Cold War has redefined the security landscape. By taking proactive steps—leveraging actionable intelligence, building resilience, and fostering collaboration—organizations can not only defend against today’s threats but also prepare for the challenges of tomorrow.